Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.273699 0.316252 0.362601 0.416751 0.478190 0.545644 0.625221
2025-07-06 0.201366 0.254247 0.316511 0.394924 0.490707 0.603546 0.746171
2025-07-13 0.161290 0.221136 0.296843 0.398923 0.532148 0.699201 0.923483
2025-07-20 0.126629 0.188252 0.271851 0.392229 0.559534 0.781974 1.097832
2025-07-27 0.103123 0.165779 0.256670 0.395953 0.601267 0.889438 1.320191
2025-08-03 0.085214 0.147809 0.244672 0.402180 0.647603 1.009920 1.577821
2025-08-10 0.066014 0.123784 0.219246 0.384020 0.655319 1.076255 1.767293
2025-08-17 0.050312 0.102023 0.193252 0.360254 0.650403 1.122715 1.933213
2025-08-24 0.040340 0.088145 0.177869 0.351404 0.668295 1.207356 2.170459
2025-08-31 0.032479 0.076391 0.163952 0.342567 0.684671 1.291480 2.417646
2025-09-07 0.027755 0.069900 0.158754 0.349031 0.729529 1.430224 2.775426
2025-09-14 0.022015 0.059663 0.143889 0.333734 0.730865 1.491177 3.002651
2025-09-21 0.017715 0.051777 0.132734 0.324905 0.745454 1.582298 3.304185
2025-09-28 0.014144 0.044628 0.121624 0.314048 0.754294 1.664044 3.599612
2025-10-05 0.012270 0.041447 0.119210 0.322513 0.805956 1.838016 4.097661
2025-10-12 0.010247 0.037184 0.113108 0.321061 0.835498 1.970685 4.529244
2025-10-19 0.008868 0.034426 0.110331 0.327389 0.884217 2.150649 5.081201
2025-10-26 0.007745 0.032117 0.108257 0.335196 0.937901 2.348519 5.694852
2025-11-02 0.006200 0.027739 0.099037 0.321757 0.936765 2.423019 6.047577
2025-11-09 0.004832 0.023416 0.088752 0.302971 0.918569 2.455461 6.309699
2025-11-16 0.003983 0.020766 0.083084 0.296508 0.932040 2.565159 6.762953
2025-11-23 0.003280 0.018409 0.077722 0.289775 0.943631 2.671739 7.221148
2025-11-30 0.002890 0.017292 0.076470 0.295986 0.993249 2.880481 7.949977